The Wound That Never Healed

The Oslo Accords of 1993 promised Israelis security and Palestinians a path to statehood. Thirty years later, Oslo had produced neither. The Palestinian Authority governed the West Bank in a state of permanent interim limbo. Gaza, controlled by Hamas since its 2007 takeover after a brief civil war with the Fatah-led PA, was under an Israeli-Egyptian blockade that restricted the movement of people, goods, and building materials. Unemployment exceeded 40 percent. Fresh water was scarce. Two million people lived in one of the most densely populated strips of land on earth.

Hamas — the Islamic Resistance Movement — had been founded in 1987 as an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood during the First Intifada. Its charter called for the destruction of Israel, though later documents softened this toward a Palestinian state on 1967 borders. Hamas fought several wars with Israel — 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021 — each ending with a ceasefire that left the underlying conditions unchanged. The 2014 war killed over 2,000 Palestinians and 73 Israelis. Each cycle reinforced each side's conviction that the other would never accept coexistence.

By 2023, Israel's government was the most right-wing in its history. The coalition included ministers who called for the annexation of the West Bank and the voluntary or forced transfer of Palestinians. Settlement construction accelerated. Raids into the West Bank killed hundreds. In Jerusalem, Israeli government ministers repeatedly visited the al-Aqsa mosque compound — a highly charged act. For Hamas military commander Yahya Sinwar, conditions were reaching a breaking point. He had been planning something unprecedented for over a year.